Perspectives and images of cycling as a barrier or facilitator of cycling

The public images of cycling can act as barriers or facilitators of cycling. This qualitative study explored images and perceptions of cycling, their potential influence on cycling and whether these views differed between regular, occasional and non-riders.Seventy participants (24 males and 46 females) were recruited. Of these, 22 were classified as non-riders, 23 were occasional riders and 25 were regular riders. Twelve focus groups were held in inner Sydney during October and November 2005. Data were audio taped, transcribed and thematically analysed.Themes linked to images of cycling included: ‘clean and green’; ‘healthy and fun’; ‘dangerous’ and ‘serious business’. Themes linked to images of cyclists included: ‘risk takers and law breakers’ and ‘status and sub-cultures’. Discussion centred on the low social status of riding over other transport modes, the relative acceptability of different riding sub-cultures, the ‘green’ image of cycling transport and the status associated with the riders clothing and bicycle choice, especially lycra and its ‘serious and sporty’ connotation.While ‘cycling’ was generally viewed as a positive, environmentally friendly activity, the actions of some ‘cyclists’ were disliked, which influenced views about cycling, particularly among non-riders. A cycling acceptability hierarchy emerged; with recreational riding at the top, followed by cycling for sport and exercise, with transport/commuter cycling towards the bottom. Bicycle couriers were viewed least favourably. A common perception among non-riders was the latter two groups were rule breakers and risk takers, while regular riders felt unfairly judged by this stereotype.While there was greater acceptance of recreational riding, riding for transport was not viewed as a mainstream activity. There is a need to improve the public acceptability of cycling and change public norms so it is seen as an everyday activity that can be undertaken by almost anyone, without the need for special clothing, expensive equipment or limited to purpose built facilities.     

Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects

The effect of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical PTA literature. The existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the ‘correct’ set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. Statistical theory shows that BMA successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error, and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we find strong evidence of trade creation, trade diversion, and open bloc effects. Our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent PTA literature. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sharing risk and ambiguity

We study the market implications of ambiguity in common models. We show that generic determinacy is a robust feature in general equilibrium models that allow a distinction between ambiguity and risk.     

英国养老金的发展

英格兰对退休雇员给付养老金已经有很长的历史。1269年国王亨利三世因仆人威廉年纪大、身体弱,授予他每天4便士的养老金。本文先勾画自那时起的养老金历史发展,然后讨论当前养老金的问题,最后预测今后10年英国养老金的发展。     

OPTIMIZATION‐BASED PROCUREMENT FOR TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

This paper presents the concept of optimization‐based procurement for transportation services. The approach allows both the shipper and carriers to benefit through the use of a collaborative approach to securing and managing a strategic relationship. Because the shipper's assignment problem involves a combinatorial number of choices and cannot be easily executed manually, the procurement process benefits strongly from the use of optimization. The authors introduce the optimization‐based procurement process, briefly analyze the theoretical issues, and discuss lessons learned from its application in practice over the last several years.     

Multi-ownership of tourism accommodation complexes: A critique of types, relative merits, and challenges arising

Across the Western World there has been significant expansion in the multi-ownership of tourism accommodation complexes in recent years. Despite this development, this is believed to be the first study to attempt a holistic synthesis of the range of forms and structures that multi-owned tourism accommodation (MOTA) complexes can assume. A spectrum of MOTA types is developed based on the notion that MOTA complexes can exhibit varying degrees of ownership. This synthesis of MOTA types lays the basis for an evaluation of the relative merits of different MOTA types. A commentary is provided concerning the difficulty of quantifying MOTA growth and the nature of challenges that MOTA can present to a range of stakeholders.     

The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports

This study examines the economic costs and benefits to the UK of a 50 per cent cut in UK defence exports from the average level of 1998 and 1999. The net impact on the government budget is estimated to be an ongoing loss of between around £40 million and £100 million a year: around 0.2–0.4 per cent of the total UK defence budget. In addition, there is estimated to be a one‐off net adjustment cost, spread over five years, of between £0.9 billion and £1.4 billion. A further more speculative adjustment cost (estimated at around £1.1 billion) could result if the loss of income associated with the ‘terms‐of‐trade£ effect were also included. In terms of the wider debate about defence exports, the results of this study suggest first that the economic effects of the reduction in defence exports are relatively small and largely one‐off, and secondly that the balance of arguments about UK defence exports should be determined mainly by non‐economic factors.